Sri Lanka's recent election result has apparently shifted the ball in India's court. It's now upto India to mold the incipient relations with Sri Lanka to its favour and counter its aggressive neighbour.
India's growing worries about an aggressive neighbor has steepened resulting in strengthening of its ties with superpowers, that are in bitter relations with China, perceiving a threat to their hegemony. With no clear palpable pattern and intentions of what's in China's Pandora box for the world, India's worries have manifested in a series of strategic partnerships with the many "poles" of the world with an aim to boost its defence and economy. But if we delve into the prevailing geopolitics it is discernible that its not the "poles" that matter but the strategic and geopolitical location that is of utmost importance today. The South Asian and South East Asian countries were a witness to this with the recent shift in the political structure of Sri Lanka and the related after effects.
With trade and economy of the world being integrated today, it makes no sense to say that a country would destabilize the other but to its own discomfort. But experts believe that this concept of "peace through integration" is a misnomer when it comes to China which has cleverly crafted its economy to be resilient to perturbations in global economic order come what may. And an element of its strategy popularly termed as "String of Pearls" which had intensified the lines on India's forehead comes into prominence. The change in political order of Sri Lanka has given India a good opportunity to untie a knot of this string and disrupt a link of the chain meant to counter India's growing muscle power in the Indian Ocean.
With the shift in Sri Lanka's power regime comes a challenge to overcome the debt burden that Rajapaksa's govt has left back for Sirisena which accounts to billions of $ with a hefty interest to be paid back to China. And there are reasons to beleive that Sri Lanka's inclination towards India has significantly increased after the elections. Sri Lanka has plans to reassess the schemes of port development allotted to China that may come as a shock to China's MSR plan. Then, Samaraweera's first visit as foreign minister of the new govt to India adds to the agony of China. In addition, release of imprisoned fishermen and Sri Lanka's close proximity to India and thus chances of reaping maximum benefits through trade, clearly indicate Sri Lankan govt's tilt towards India. But at the same time the fact that Sri Lanka's debt gives China a leverage over India must not be ignored. Further, India's aggressive stance towards repromulgating the Indian Ocean Zone of Peace may again be an irritant to China but it would also resist India itself from flexing its muscles in the Indian Ocean Region.
However, India has a plethora of opportunities to make use of. It would be a wait and watch show to see how prudently Modi turns it into India's favour.
